ANALYSIS: Cabinet will today decide whether the country outside of Auckland will remain at Covid alert level 3 or whether it will come down to level 2. Auckland is set to remain at level 4 for at least another week.

There will be several factors weighing on the nation’s executive as it seeks to make these decisions. The key question will be around the likelihood that there are still positive cases lurking about in the community that are yet unknown.

The decision comes as New Zealand passes the 50 per cent mark of first vaccinations in the community. In reported numbers on Sunday, New Zealand administered over 77,000 vaccine doses, compared with 46,000 in NSW and 29,000 in the state of Victoria.

The lockdown has steadily driven down the numbers to record only 20 new positive cases on both Saturday and Sunday. Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield, who gave Sunday’s update with Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson, said the results were encouraging

“The ongoing fall in numbers is proving that alert level 4 in Auckland, and our public health measures are rapidly slowing the spread of the virus,” Bloomfield said

Various Government ministers have refused to be drawn on any possible change and has emphasised the need for the most up-to-date information to be presented to Cabinet on Monday.

“We bear in mind a number of different factors when we're going through this and that includes ... the status of cases, testing, wastewater all of those matters,” Robertson said.

Earlier last week, both the Prime minister and Director General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said that there was no reason why the rest of the country couldn’t come down to alert level 2, while Auckland remained in its strict lockdown for at last another week.

 

“There's no public health reason why it couldn't happen,” Bloomfield said last week.

The other key metric that the Government will be watching is Covid cases active in the community. Of the 20 cases announced yesterday, six had been active in the community, in six separate ‘’exposure events’’ but none of those in any ‘’essential’’ workplace.

The last point is key because, if continued, it could indicate that Covid is being successfully kept out of supply chains.

Behind the primary consideration of potentially unknown cases are the secondary considerations of whether higher alert levels are needed on the basis that there could be spread from Auckland to elsewhere in the country.

This means having confidence in the new Auckland borders and people travelling in and out of the level 4 area.

If a positive case moved from Auckland to another part of the country that was at level 2, the risk of spread would be increased.

To counter this, some epidemiological experts have called for level 2 to be beefed up to include greater restrictions than in the past, such as smaller allowed gathering sizes and perhaps even continued closure of higher-risk venues such as bars and pubs.

Bloomfield yesterday confirmed that while tweaks to alert level 2 were being worked on by the Ministry of Health, whatever was adopted by Cabinet, should apply to all the country.

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“We've given advice on ways to strengthen alert level 2. For example it won't be any surprise, use of masks, of course. But alert level 2 is alert level 2, and it would apply everywhere, would be our advice, because part of the value of the alert level framework is simplicity and consistency of messaging,” Bloomfield said.

Currently, at alert level 2, gatherings of up to 100 are allowed indoors and restaurants and pubs can reopen up to that number provided groups of patrons are distanced from each other, remain seated and with table service only.

The other factors taken into consideration will be the continued economic impact of drawn out lockdowns – particularly in places that have not seen any Covid during this outbreak. The South Island is an obvious location for this.

“I think it’s time to move much of the North Island down the alert level system and certainly the South Island,” University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker told Stuff on Saturday evening.

“I think the South Island knows that it's helping to contribute to New Zealand's overall ability to stamp out this outbreak,” Robertson said.

In Wellington, the only other city with active Covid cases in quarantine, there hasn’t been a case active in the community – or transmission outside a household contact since August 20.

On the balance of publicly available evidence, it appears that there is little justification for remaining at alert level 3 outside of Auckland for much longer. But it is a reminder that this is a political decision – one informed by health advice – but taken by elected representatives.

For the Government, if there are any latent fears of cases outside of Auckland, staying at a higher alert level for a few extra days carries a lower political – and economic – cost than opening too early and having cases spring up again.

That said, getting back to normal as fast as safely possible should be the driving principle. That may happen for the non-Auckland part of the country today, but should equally apply to the nation’s commercial capital as soon as it can.

If there’s no evidence to support level 3 being continued around the country, a move to level 2 in the next few days should be on the cards this afternoon.