The government has been signalling that by the early 2030s, defence expenditure will be at 2% of GDP. This can only signify an increased naval fleet, writes senior contributor Dr Wayne Mapp.

The Minister of Defence, Judith Collins has spent much of early September on an official trip to Europe. The trip included a special visit to Ukraine. Minister Collins, with her extensive social media coverage, has been very clear in the importance that she places on bolstering New Zealand’s defence and intelligence relationships.

Her meetings included the Ministerial meeting in London of the Five Eyes partners. The Five Eyes relationship is becoming increasingly important, with much greater focus on the Ministerial meetings, which have become more prominent in recent years. Five Eyes has graduated from being a relationship almost exclusively between intelligence agencies to a much broader security relationship with active high level political direction.

The five nations do not co-ordinate their political responses on all major issues. In fact, they are often quite divergent, as illustrated by their different responses to the crisis in Gaza. But there is an underlying sense that the Five Eyes are a steadfast bloc with shared values and purpose. That on fundamental issues, they will act in unity.

This has been most recently shown by their joint approach by the anti-piracy and freedom of navigation mission against the Houthis in Yemen. This follows on from the numerous joint actions by the Five Eyes nations ever since the events of September 11, 2001.

The Minister also signed a Joint Statement on enhanced defence cooperation with UK Secretary of Defence John Healey. This will reinforce traditional links and arguably also buttresses the AUKUS partnership.

“Over the next five years the government will spend an extra $12 billion on the New Zealand Defence Force. The great bulk of this will be for major capital equipment.”

The Minister’s visit has served to reinforce New Zealand’s commitment to the wider Western alliance, and especially the importance of the Five Eyes relationship. This relationship has become increasingly central in New Zealand’s overall defence and security relationships.

This focus on the importance of key defence and security relationships was recently illustrated by the recent announcement of the purchase of five Sikorsky Seahawk SH – 60R helicopters and two Airbus A321XLR aircraft for $2.7 billion. This  was the first of many upcoming major capital equipment purchases.

Over the next five years the government will spend an extra $12 billion on the New Zealand Defence Force. The great bulk of this will be for major capital equipment.

READ MORE

• New Zealand Navy expresses interest in Japan’s upgraded Mogami-class frigate
• Defence industry strategy
• In Depth: New Zealand Defence needs a Pacific-centric reset
• How did New Zealand end up buying only five MH-60R Seahawks?

The announcement of the Seahawk helicopters had been anticipated for quite some time. They are to replace the ex-Australian Kaman Seasprite helicopters. The Seasprite helicopters were always intended to be a stop gap measure. 

As Minister of Defence, I initiated the purchase of the 11 Seasprite helicopters. The existing five Seaprite helicopters were technologically out classed, even though they had new airframes.

The Australian Seasprites had a far more advanced avionic set up. However, the Australians had rejected them because of concerns over their performance at the extreme edge of the flight envelope. The New Zealand review team considered these concerns were not warranted.

“… by the early 2030s, defence expenditure will be at 2% of GDP. That can only signify an increased naval fleet.”

The deal being offered by Kaman was less than 10% of the price of new helicopters, including a comprehensive spares package. With 11 airframes, it would be possible to have five operational machines for many years into the future. Back in 20211, we thought that might be ten years.

As it has turned out, the ex-Australian Seasprite helicopters will be in service for 15 years. They have ensured that New Zealand has combat capable helicopters that are an essential part of the operational capabilities of the ANZAC frigates.

The new Seahawk helicopters are the precursor to replacing the existing ANZAC frigates with new frigates. A lesser type of naval vessel, such as a patrol vessel, would not have such sophisticated helicopters. The government has sent a clear signal, to the NZDF, to the wider New Zealand public, and to our defence partners, that New Zealand will have combat capable naval ships well into the future.

It is a decision that must have been made after close consultation with Australia, who already operate the Seahawk on their ANZAC frigates and air warfare destroyers. Their helicopters will be carried over onto the new Japanese designed frigates that Australia has chosen.

There has been some questioning of the price of $2 billion for five helicopters. Not all details of the purchase have been released. However, it is clear that New Zealand is buying much than five airframes. There is a whole spares, maintenance, and training package, including simulators. There is also a complete weapons package. The details of these packages, including their timeframe, is not yet public.

There is also a question as to whether five machines will be enough. This entirely depends on the future naval fleet replacement programme. More ships, especially combat ships, means more helicopters. It will be relatively easy to add extra machines if that is required. In that case the additional cost would largely be the airframe cost.

Defence is unlikely to be a central issue in the next election. However, the existing spending commitments, much less any increase, will bear upon the nature of the political promises that the parties on each side of politics can make.

In previous articles, I have highlighted how the test of New Zealand’ s commitment to upgrading the NZDF will largely rest on whether New Zealand buys more than two frigates to replace the ANZAC ships. A one-to-one replacement would not be seen as stepping up. Not when the current Australian naval programme will double the number of combat capable ships compared to the existing fleet.

The Government has been progressively signaling, including with statements by Prime Minister Luxon, that they intend to make that step. That by the early 2030s, defence expenditure will be at 2% of GDP. That can only signify an increased naval fleet.

It is unlikely any decisions that would confirm this commitment will be made prior to the 2026 election. The leading party of the Opposition, the Labour Party, has indicated that the NZDF needs to be modernised but has not expressed any commitment to a 2% goal. Their likely coalition partners, the Green Party and Te Pati Maori, are actively opposed to such an increase.

Defence is unlikely to be a central issue in the next election. However, the existing spending commitments, much less any increase, will bear upon the nature of the political promises that the parties on each side of politics can make.

The Government parties will be effectively bound by the forecasts arising from the 2026 Budget. These will also affect the Opposition, at least to the extent that they involve binding purchase contracts. Beyond that, the Opposition has more freedom. The Labour Party, would be expected to release a budgetary programme for the next three years that is capable of implementation. That will inevitably have to say something about the direction of defence spending.

Thus, while defence will not be to the fore in the election campaign, it will have some significance. Money spent on defence is money that can’t be spent elsewhere. At least to this extent, defence expenditure will play a role in next year’s election.