Australia-New Zealand alliance hints at fresh warship win for Japan

Closer ties could see Wellington follow Canberra in buying Mogami-class frigate. New Zealand is continuing to weigh its options for replacing two navy frigates, with a statement this week hinting Japan could achieve another big win for its Mogami-class vessels.

Japan had made a major breakthrough last August when Australia said it would buy 11 upgraded versions of Mogami-class frigates, in a deal with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that marked the country's first warship exports.

Now the upgraded Mogami-class and the British Type 31 have emerged as the top contenders as the Royal New Zealand Navy seeks to replace its aging ANZAC-class frigates by the mid-2030s.

Wellington could potentially follow in the footsteps of Canberra, which picked MHI's frigate over German naval powerhouse Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems' design as the Royal Australian Navy's new general-purpose frigate. The first three ships will be built in Japan, and the remaining eight will be constructed at Western Australia's Henderson shipyard.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is making upgraded versions of its Mogami-class frigate for the Royal Australian Navy.

On Tuesday, New Zealand Defense Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters met with their Australian counterparts, Richard Marles and Penny Wong, in Canberra to sign a statement of intent to deepen and operationalize their countries' defense alliance celebrating its 75th anniversary. It said both agreed to "procure and employ common and complementary capabilities on our exercises and operations," including strike capabilities in maritime platforms by 2035.

"If you interpret what it says in the joint statement, it would hint that there would be a strong reason for New Zealand to purchase Mogami," said Alex Bristow, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank.

If Auckland picks the Mogami-class, it would likely make the same amendments to the design as Australia did "so they've got the same capabilities" to ensure interoperability, he added.

For New Zealand, so far, "no decisions have been made on the makeup of New Zealand's maritime fleet," Collins, the defense chief, told Nikkei Asia in an email on Wednesday, with final selection to be determined through the "usual business case process."

Defense continues to engage closely with partner nations, including Australia, to assess opportunities to enhance interoperability," she said, referring to her ministry. She added that New Zealand would also consider the "approach Australia is taking, and whether there is any reason for New Zealand to take a different approach."

Reasons for New Zealand to go for the British Type 31 design could be its lower cost and lower risk due to its already "proven design," said naval specialist Alex Luck. "New Zealand is a small military force, and they have persistent issues with personnel and expenses and budgets, so I was thinking that a less expensive design might make more sense for them."

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At the same time, the Mogami is attractive due to the "strong history of industrial cooperation" between New Zealand and Australia, if the latter were to support the construction of the Mogami-class frigates in the Henderson shipyard for its neighbor across the Tasman Sea, Luck said.

"Both navies also have somewhat similar requirements" in terms of maritime surveillance cooperation, he said. "That all is being made easier always if you share the same design and operate it in the same way." There would also be more "synergies in terms of training and maintenance."

Luck suggested choosing the Mogami would be beneficial for the Japan-New Zealand relationship, which both countries' leaders have invested in strengthening over the years.

Collins told Nikkei her country's relationship with Japan -- a "key partner" -- has "gone from strength to strength during my tenure."

Tokyo and Auckland signed an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) in December, which would facilitate the reciprocal provision of supplies and services between Japan's Self-Defense Forces and New Zealand's Defense Force.

"Agreements like the ACSA reflect our shared understanding of the changing geostrategic environment," Collins told Nikkei. "We welcome increased cooperation between our countries where it makes sense to do so, and for the benefit of our shared regional environment."

Alarms were raised within Australian and New Zealand defense circles when a flotilla of Chinese warships conducted an unannounced circumnavigation exercise around Australia in February last year, which included surprise live-fire drills in the Tasman, the body of water separating the two countries, prompting commercial flights to divert from their routes at one point.

"We used to think of our challenges being mostly to the north, but now, with the expanding reach of other navies, and the Chinese navy is an obvious example, I think both countries are also looking to the south," said Luck.

"It would be easier for both navies to cooperate on a fluid basis if they operate the same sort of systems. They simply understand each other better that way," he said. "You can achieve the same having different systems as well. You don't need to have the same ships necessarily, but it makes things a lot easier on an operational level. That's just a simple thing really, it is desirable, let's put it that way."